When to Use Top Teams in Last Man Standing
Every Last Man Standing player knows they should "save the big teams for later." But how much later? In which situations? Against which opponents? The vague advice everyone gives turns out to be surprisingly difficult to execute well — because there is always a tempting fixture this week, and "later" never quite arrives. Here is the detailed answer.
The KwickPicks Team has spent years running and playing Last Man Standing competitions across the Premier League, Championship, and lower leagues. We write about LMS strategy, fixture analysis, and pick advice to help players at every level survive longer — and win.
Defining "Top Teams" for LMS Purposes
For the purpose of this guide, top teams means the elite clubs whose win rate is consistently high enough that you can pick them in almost any fixture — home or away — and expect more wins than losses. In the modern Premier League, this typically means the top two or three sides in any given season: usually Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool, with Chelsea and Newcastle occasionally entering that bracket in strong runs.
These teams are valuable in LMS not just because they win often — it's because they win often in circumstances where other teams would not. A top team can beat a mid-table side away from home on a wet Tuesday in February. A Tier 2 team often cannot. That versatility is what makes them worth saving.
In the Championship, League One, and League Two, the same principle applies but the "top teams" are the current promotion leaders — the sides that have built a consistent win rate over the season. They're less dominant than Premier League elites, but the strategic logic of conserving them is identical.
The Case Against Using Them Early
The fundamental argument for saving top teams: in the early rounds of a Last Man Standing competition, you almost always have a comparable alternative. If Man City are available and so are Brighton, and both have comfortable home fixtures this week, using Brighton and saving City costs you almost nothing in terms of this round's survival probability.
The expected cost of using City early is not the risk of losing — it's the certainty of not having them later. By round ten, the field has thinned and the picks have become genuinely difficult. The player who preserved their top teams now has options. The player who burned them in rounds two and four does not.
Over a full Premier League season, experienced LMS players typically aim to still have at least one Tier 1 team available after round twenty. This sounds extreme, but it is achievable if you are genuinely disciplined about using Tier 2 and Tier 3 options when they suffice.
Four Situations Where Using a Top Team is Correct
1. You Genuinely Have No Other Reliable Option
If your remaining available teams consist of two mid-table sides in difficult away fixtures and one top team at home, use the top team. The whole point of saving them is for exactly this situation. Dying on the sword of "I was saving them" while losing with a Tier 4 option is the worst possible outcome. Survival first — pool management second.
2. The Round is Unusually Difficult Across the Field
Some rounds are just hard. Cup weeks, international breaks, congested fixture periods — rounds where no team looks genuinely comfortable and the field is under collective pressure. In these rounds, the top team is not just your best option; it's the clearest separator between survivors and those eliminated. Using them here, when everyone else is choosing between uncomfortable picks, is high-value.
3. A Specific Home Game Against Weak Opposition
If City are at home to a bottom-three side, and the next time they have a similarly comfortable fixture is in three rounds against a mid-table team — not as comfortable — it can be correct to use them now. The question is always: am I giving up a better opportunity for this one, or is this the best opportunity in the near-term schedule? Compare this week against the next three or four, not against an abstract future.
4. Late Season, Final Pool Depletion
After round 25 or 26, if you still have a Tier 1 team available and are finding each round slightly more difficult than the last, start looking seriously at when to deploy them. The end of season run-in — rounds 30 to 38 — is where every pick matters most and where top teams earn their value. Using City in round 28 at home to a struggling side, rather than trying to squeeze through on a Tier 3 pick, is often the correct call.
Four Situations Where Saving Them is Correct
1. You Have Three or More Comparable Alternatives
If you have a Tier 1 team available and two other teams with comfortable home fixtures this week, use one of the alternatives. You lose almost nothing in terms of this week's survival probability, and you preserve a more versatile asset for later. The opportunity cost of using the top team is real — the cost of using an alternative is negligible.
2. The Fixture is Deceptively Risky
A top team playing away at a mid-table side, in a congested fixture run, after a European midweek match — this is not the week to burn them. Their win rate is still higher than alternatives, but it is not as high as a top team at home in a comfortable game. The gap between "City at home to a relegated side" and "City away after Europa League" is larger than most people assume.
3. An Even Better Fixture Is Coming in Two Rounds
Forward planning matters. If Liverpool have a comfortable home game this week but an even more favourable fixture in two rounds — say, against a relegated side in the final home game of the season — it may be worth waiting. The two-round check is always worth doing before committing to a top team pick.
4. The Field Is Small and Everyone Is Comfortable
In a late-season small-field competition where five players remain and all five have solid picks this week, there is no relative advantage to using your top team. Everyone survives, positions stay the same. Use your least valuable available option and preserve the premium asset for a round where not everyone has a good pick.
The Key Trap: Permanent Deferral
The most common failure mode for players who understand the "save your top teams" principle is perpetual deferral. Every week, the reasoning is: "I have a reasonable alternative this week, so I'll save them for next week." Next week arrives. Same reasoning. And then suddenly you're in round 32 with Manchester City unused, Liverpool unused, and Arsenal unused — and your team pool is otherwise exhausted. Now you use all three in succession, which is exactly what saving them was meant to prevent.
Set yourself a target: know approximately which rounds you're earmarking your Tier 1 teams for. If round 25 arrives and you haven't used them yet but the schedule suggests rounds 28–31 will be difficult, plan to use one or two of them in that window. Don't wait for round 35 if the rounds between now and then will give you chances to use them well.
A Worked Example
Consider this scenario: it is round 18, you have Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool all available. This week, City are at home to Brentford (comfortable), Arsenal are at home to Wolves (comfortable), and Liverpool are away at Everton (competitive, higher risk).
The correct play is not to use City or Arsenal this week. Look at what else is in your pool. If Brighton are at home to Southampton in a similarly comfortable fixture, use Brighton. If Fulham are at home to Ipswich in decent form, use Fulham. The goal is to get through round 18 using the cheapest available option — not the best one.
Now look ahead: if rounds 22–24 all have difficult-looking fixture lists with no obvious Tier 2 options, those are the rounds to plan to use City and Arsenal. You had the foresight in round 18 to keep them available. Now they earn their value.
Practice this in a live competition
Theory is one thing. Apply it in a real Last Man Standing competition from the opening round.