Best Teams to Pick in Last Man Standing: A Tiering Guide
Not all teams are equal in Last Man Standing. The same pick that's a clear banker in round one might be a wasted asset in round fifteen. This guide breaks down how to think about team value across all four supported leagues — and crucially, when to use each tier rather than just which teams are "best."
The KwickPicks Team has spent years running and playing Last Man Standing competitions across the Premier League, Championship, and lower leagues. We write about LMS strategy, fixture analysis, and pick advice to help players at every level survive longer — and win.
How to Think About Team Value in LMS
In Last Man Standing, team value isn't fixed — it depends on the fixture. Manchester City away at Anfield in January is a very different pick to Manchester City at home to relegated Sunderland in May. The team is the same, but the expected outcome is wildly different.
A useful way to think about it: every team pick has two components — the probability it survives you this week, and the opportunity cost of no longer having that team available in future weeks. A pick that has a 90% chance of winning is "cheap" if you have ten similar options available. It's "expensive" if it's one of your last two reliable picks.
The goal isn't to always pick the team most likely to win. It's to manage your team pool so that you always have something reliable available, particularly in the rounds where everyone else is struggling.
Premier League — Tier Breakdown
The Premier League is the most common LMS format, with 20 teams across a 38-gameweek season. Here's how to think about the field.
Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool
The three most consistently dominant sides in recent Premier League seasons. Home or away, they win more than they draw or lose. In draw-eliminates competitions, they're even more valuable because their win rate specifically (not just their points rate) is the highest in the division. Save these for rounds where nothing else looks remotely reliable. Using them in round two because they have a comfortable home game is almost always a mistake.
Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Manchester United (when in form)
Reliably good at home in comfortable fixtures, more variable away. Chelsea at home to a bottom-six side is a solid LMS pick. Chelsea away at Newcastle in a title run-in is not. The key with Tier 2 teams is matching them to favourable fixtures. A home game against a relegated or struggling side is the sweet spot. Build a mental queue: "When does each Tier 2 team have their best home run?" and plan to use them then.
Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, Wolves, West Ham, Everton
These teams win often enough to be useful — but only in genuinely favourable conditions. A home fixture against a bottom-three side, strong current form, no injury concerns. The moment any of those factors goes negative, their pick value drops significantly. Don't use Tier 3 teams in neutral or unfavourable fixtures unless you're genuinely running low on better options.
Bottom six sides, relegation candidates
These teams do win occasionally — football is unpredictable — but their base win rate is too low to build a strategy around. If you find yourself needing to use a Tier 4 team, ask honestly: is the specific fixture particularly favourable? A bottom-three side hosting the league leader is a Tier 4 pick to avoid. A bottom- three side at home to another bottom-three side in a critical relegation six-pointer? Possibly viable. But only if nothing better is available.
Championship — A Different Kind of Unpredictability
The Championship is the most densely packed league for LMS, with 24 teams across a 46-gameweek season. The gap between first and mid-table is significantly smaller than in the Premier League — there are very few truly dominant sides in any given season.
That means the tiering system works differently. In the Championship, you're generally looking at:
- →Promotion chasers at home: The top two or three sides in the table, at home, against bottom-half opposition. These are your safest Championship picks. However, be aware the promotion race changes throughout the season — a team sitting second in October might be ninth by January.
- →Heavy home advantage: In the Championship, home advantage is more pronounced than in the Premier League. Prioritise home fixtures almost universally. Away picks in the Championship are genuinely risky even for top sides.
- →Avoid mid-table away trips: Mid-table Championship sides on the road are among the most pick-dangerous fixtures in English football. These games are coin-flip territory.
The 46-gameweek season and 24-team pool means you'll go deeper into your available options than in the Premier League. Managing your pool from the very first round matters even more in the Championship.
League One & League Two — The Wild Card Leagues
Leagues One and Two are the most unpredictable tiers in English football for LMS purposes. The quality gap between teams is smaller, home advantage is less pronounced, and individual moments — a red card in the 10th minute, a goalkeeper howler, a rogue penalty — have a bigger proportional impact on results.
That doesn't mean good picks don't exist. It means you need to be honest about the expected variance. A pick that's "70% likely to win" in the Premier League might be "60% likely to win" in League Two given the same surface-level fixture quality. Price that in.
In League One and Two, current momentum matters more than in higher leagues. A team on a six-game winning run in League Two, at home against a play-off rival, is a solid LMS pick. The same team after three defeats is not — even if their season-long record looks fine. Form clusters in these leagues.
The Fixture Matters More Than the Team
It bears repeating: the most important factor in an LMS pick is not the team — it's the fixture. A Tier 3 team in a genuinely favourable home fixture is often a better pick than a Tier 1 team in a difficult away game. The whole point of the tiering system is to know which teams have enough baseline quality to win when the fixture suits them.
The question to ask about any pick is: "In how many of the next ten times this fixture is played, does the team I'm backing win?" If the answer is seven or eight, that's a strong LMS pick. If it's four or five, you're taking a coinflip you probably don't need to take. And if it's the only option available? Accept the variance, submit, and hope.
A Final Word on Home vs Away
Across all four leagues, the single strongest correlation with LMS pick success is home advantage. Home teams win roughly 45% of Premier League matches, 48% of Championship matches, and an even higher proportion in Leagues One and Two. For every away pick you consider, ask yourself: is there a similarly reliable home pick available this week? If yes, use the home pick. Save the away pick for a week when you have fewer options.
Home advantage in Last Man Standing isn't just a nice-to-have. Over a long competition, consistently prioritising home fixtures for all but the most reliable away sides will meaningfully improve your survival rate.
Apply it in a live competition
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